666666;background:white;"> Research On Textile Economy In The 14Th Five Year Plan Of Domestic Textile Industry

Domestic demand market is the basic motivation and solid guarantee for the textile industry of new China from gradually establishing industrial system to entering the first echelon of manufacturing power. The textile industry has always regarded meeting the needs of national development and people's life as the starting point and end point. It has played an important role in supporting the national economy and ensuring people's livelihood in different historical stages of China's economic and social development by continuously improving the supply guarantee capacity and optimizing the supply structure. At the end of 2018, the central economic work conference proposed for the first time to promote the formation of a strong domestic market. In 2020, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China issued "suggestions on formulating the 14th five year plan and the long-term goal in 2035", which once again stressed the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand to form a strong domestic market. Under the background of the smooth realization of the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way and the acceleration of the construction of the "double cycle" new pattern with the domestic big cycle as the main body, the textile industry meets, leads and creates domestic demand with high-quality supply, and fully meets the people's new expectations for a better life, which is not only a strategic opportunity, but also the requirement of the times, but also the unremitting pursuit of the industry.

With the development of national economy and society, China's domestic demand market is constantly evolving, and the interactive relationship with the development of textile industry is also constantly changing

Figure 1: changes in some indicators of China's economic development

Source: National Bureau of statistics

Foundation construction: to meet the basic needs of clothing and quilt, and to shoulder the responsibility of food and clothing

At the beginning of the founding of new China, China's economic foundation was weak, and the income and consumption level of residents were very low. In 1952, the per capita GDP was only 119 yuan, and the urbanization rate was only 12.5%. The primary task was to restore and develop the economy and solve the problem of food and clothing, while the core task of the textile industry was to ensure the basic living needs of clothing and covers. In the early days of the founding of the people's Republic of China, cutting cloth for clothing and quilt was the main mode of consumption. Cotton cloth was limited by ticket, and the per capita cotton production was only 7 feet. In 1952, the retail sales of wearing consumer goods in the whole society was 5.1 billion yuan, only 8.8 yuan per capita.

Since the 1950s, the textile industry has made great efforts to build a cotton textile base, strengthen self-supporting equipment, actively develop chemical fiber raw materials such as viscose (sometimes called artificial cotton) and acrylic fiber (then called artificial wool), accelerate the development of knitting industry, and enrich the selection of clothing materials. Especially in the 1970s, China introduced technology to build four synthetic fiber bases, which became a breakthrough in the supply capacity of the textile industry. China's chemical fiber output was only 200 tons in 1957, increased to 290000 tons in 1980, and reached 1.65 million tons in 1990; the total processing volume of textile fibers increased from several hundred thousand tons in the early days of the people's Republic of China to 2.76 million tons in 1978, and reached 6.3 million tons in 1990.

In 1983, China cancelled the limited supply of cotton cloth, indicating that the textile industry has initially possessed the ability to meet domestic demand, and has taken the lead in fulfilling the goal of "food and clothing" in the basic living needs of clothing, food, housing and transportation. A large number of products such as "Dacron", light and warm artificial blanket, colorful rayon quilt cover and strong and durable nylon Elastic socks have entered urban and rural residents' families in large quantities, and the purchase of ready-made clothes has gradually become an important consumption mode. In 1985, the retail sales of wearing consumer goods increased to 71.7 billion yuan, and reached 118.2 billion yuan in 1990.

Figure 2: retail sales of wearing consumer goods in China

Source: China Statistical Yearbook

Steady growth: strengthen the construction of material supply and sales network, consolidate the base point of industrial development

In the late 1980s, China completed the historical task of solving the problem of people's food and clothing, and embarked on the road of building a well-off society. In the 1990s, with the cumulative effect of reform and opening up, the national economy achieved steady development, people's living standards improved steadily, and the domestic market demand began to shift from quantity to quality. Solving the contradiction between the people's growing material and cultural needs and the level of productivity development has become the core development orientation. From 1990 to 2000, China's per capita GDP increased from 1663 yuan to 7942 yuan, the urbanization rate increased from 26.4% to 36.2%, and the urban-rural weighted per capita disposable income increased from 904 yuan to 3722 yuan.

In the context of the changing macro environment, textile industry as a market supplier has also undergone important changes. With the production technology innovation of textile industry, the reform of state-owned enterprises and the rise of private economy, China's textile and clothing market has completely changed from seller's market to buyer's market, and actively adapting to domestic demand has become the key direction of industry development. Based on tapping the potential of domestic demand, the textile industry has made great efforts to enrich the variety of products. Worsted cotton products and chemical fiber simulation products have sprung up in large numbers. A complete terminal product system covering clothing, decorative textiles (now known as "home textiles") and industrial textiles has been formally established, and independent clothing brands for wage earners and rural markets have begun to develop. The construction of domestic market sales system has become an important way for textile industry to meet domestic demand. With the rapid development of professional trading market, brand enterprises began to build their own sales network, and changed from production-oriented to production-oriented.

In the 1990s, it is an important national strategy to expand the export of light and textile industry to earn foreign exchange. With the rapid development of processing trade, China's textile and garment export volume leapt to the first place in the world in 1994. However, during this period, the domestic market always occupied the dominant position in the textile industry sales, and the export products only accounted for about one third of the national output, and the domestic sales firmly occupied the basic foothold position of the industry development. In 1995, the retail sales of wearing goods reached 320 billion yuan, 1.7 times higher than that in 1990. In 2000, the per capita clothing consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents in China was 500 yuan and 96 yuan, respectively, 1.9 times and 1.1 times higher than that in 1990; according to the weighted calculation of urban and rural population, the total amount of clothing consumption expenditure in China has increased by 2.4 times in ten years.

Figure 3: the world and China's per capita fiber consumption and per capita clothing consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents

Source: the fiber year, National Bureau of statistics, China Textile Industry Federation

Speed up and leap forward: deepen the adjustment and upgrading of supply side structure and strengthen the strategic key role of domestic demand market

In the new century, China has grasped the great historical opportunity of China's accession to the WTO, persisted in changing the mode of economic development, deeply promoted the structural reform of the supply side, and steadily improved the level and quality of national economic and social development. From 2001 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of China's constant price GDP will reach 11.7%. In 2019, the per capita GDP will exceed 10000 US dollars. In 2020, the total GDP will reach 10 billion yuan and the urbanization rate will exceed 60%. New urbanization, agricultural and rural modernization, urban and rural infrastructure upgrading, residents' living conditions improved, social security system improved, production and living service industry developed vigorously, a series of achievements provided strong support for the growth of domestic demand, domestic demand of textile and clothing goods entered the golden cycle of both speed-up and quality improvement, and the domestic demand market became the first priority for the steady development of textile industry drive. Especially after the international financial crisis in 2008, the international market has entered a long-term downturn cycle, and the absolute main role of domestic demand market in stabilizing growth and adjusting structure has been increasingly strengthened. In 2018, Sino US trade frictions escalated. Under the increasingly complex international trade situation, promoting the formation of a strong domestic market has officially become an important economic development strategy.

China's entry into WTO provides a great opportunity for the development of the textile industry. By deeply integrating into the international industrial division and cooperation system, the export competitiveness of the textile industry has been greatly improved. However, the domestic demand market is still the main sales body of the industry. The proportion of domestic fiber consumption in the total fiber processing volume and the scale of fiber consumption increment of domestic demand exceed export. The textile industry adheres to the domestic demand market as the primary driving force for development, actively makes overall use of the high-quality resources of the international industrial chain, meets the domestic demand and stimulates the potential of domestic demand

One is to meet the domestic market consumption and the application needs of related fields of national economy from multiple perspectives. With the development of the national economy, China's fiber demand field has broken through the traditional clothing covers, and expanded to more diversified fields such as home furnishings, medical and health care, geotechnical construction, transportation, structure increase, etc. At the beginning of this century, home textiles have achieved rapid development, and their proportion in fiber processing increased from 19% in 2000 to 33% in 2007, and still remains at 27%. The application potential of industrial textiles has been released steadily, accounting for 29% of the fiber processing capacity from 13% in 2000. Home textile and industrial industry based on domestic demand market characteristics are more obvious, the proportion of domestic demand products are significantly higher than the clothing industry. In 2019, China's per capita fiber consumption will reach 23 kg, which is 1.5 times of the world's per capita level. Fiber consumption and consumption structure both reach the level of medium developed countries. In 2000, China's per capita fiber consumption was 7.5 kg, which had not yet reached the level of 9.5 kg per capita in the world at that time.

Figure 4: proportion of fiber consumption of three end products in China's textile industry

Source: China Textile Industry Federation

The second is to meet the needs of upgrading domestic demand through continuous innovation in science and technology. The R & D and application innovation of textile materials plays an important role in meeting and leading the domestic demand of the textile industry. All kinds of differentiated and functional fiber new materials support and drive the product innovation of the whole industry chain. Fine manufacturing, flexible manufacturing, mass customization and intelligent manufacturing and other high-quality and advanced technologies are constantly upgrading, which not only drives the continuous improvement of production efficiency and output quality, but also maintains the high cost-effective welfare of textile and garment products under the situation of domestic manufacturing costs increasing substantially. Facing the increasingly multi-level and multi angle personalized demand, the textile industry also has an increasingly enhanced Quick response ability.

Third, independent brands have achieved important development achievements. Based on the continuous improvement of residents' income, textile and clothing independent brands for different urban and rural consumer groups are rising in an all-round way. Brand elements such as quality, design, cultural connotation and social responsibility image are increasingly improved. The online and offline marketing network covers the multi-level consumer market from rural towns to first tier cities. Based on the independent brand, the textile industry has obtained a more comprehensive upgrading development momentum and a more secure and controllable industrial system. With China's decisive battle to get rid of poverty and build a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way, the potential of sinking market has been significantly released. From 2011 to 2019, the average annual growth rate of per capita clothing consumption expenditure of rural residents is 11.7%, which is the fastest growth stage since the reform and opening up, which is 9 percentage points higher than that of urban residents in the same period.

Fourth, cross industry and cross-border integration innovation started steadily. In recent years, the integration and innovation of textile industry with information network, cultural creativity and other modern production and life service industries has been deepening, which has become the mainstream path for the industry to better adapt to and lead the upgrading of domestic demand in the new era. E-commerce is the most significant area of development so far. According to the calculation of circulation branch of China Textile Federation, the online retail sales of clothing and home textile products in China was only 220 billion yuan in 2011, and reached 1.7 trillion yuan in 2019. Since the National Bureau of statistics began to release the national online retail data in 2015, online retail sales of wearing goods have maintained a double-digit growth until 2019.

Sustainable Innovation: integrating high quality into the new pattern of "double circulation" with comprehensive and three-dimensional domestic demand guarantee ability

The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that the main social contradiction in the new era is the contradiction between the people's growing need for a better life and unbalanced and inadequate development. The transformation of social contradictions shows that, on the basis of the solid material foundation, improving high-quality output and supply has become a new direction of productivity development. During the "14th five year plan" period, although China's national economy will still face the test of complex international situation, its development trend will be better for a long time. Especially in the case of the continuous outbreak of the new crown disease, China's domestic demand market will undoubtedly become the core engine for the stability and recovery of the world economy. We should speed up the construction of a new development pattern of "double cycle" with the major domestic circulation as the main body, strive to promote the formation of a strong domestic market, and highlight the strategic importance of the domestic demand market.

At present, China's domestic demand market is more than 30 million tons of fiber, ranking first in the world; the total consumption of clothing goods is second only to the United States. On this basis, the domestic demand market of textiles and clothing during the "14th five year plan" period will show the characteristics of slowing down the increment growth rate and increasing the total capacity driven by the upgrading of supply quality.

From the perspective of international comparison, relevant statistical data show that the per capita fiber consumption of developed countries such as Britain, Japan, Canada is generally at the level of 20-30 kg. Only the per capita fiber consumption of the United States once exceeded 40 kg, but it also dropped to about 35 kg after the financial crisis in 2008. In 2019, China's per capita fiber consumption has reached 23 kg. From this perspective, the increasing speed of domestic fiber demand will gradually slow down. However, from the perspective of value, in 2019, the per capita clothing consumption expenditure of the United States and Italy reached nearly 8000 yuan, and that of Germany and Japan generally reached more than 6000 yuan. However, in China, the per capita clothing consumption expenditure in 2019 was 1338 yuan, and the urban residents only reached 1832 yuan, indicating that the textile industry still has broad space to play in the domestic demand market through the increase of added value. The promotion of added value includes not only the added value of quality and function brought by scientific and technological innovation, but also the added value of supply mode and service mode driven by brand innovation, as well as the added value brought by meeting the needs of expressing personality, joyful spirit and inheriting national culture.

Figure 5: per capita clothing consumption expenditure of China and some developed countries in 2019

Data source: National Bureau of statistics, based on the relevant statistical data of the United States Bureau of economic analysis, Eurostat and Japan Bureau of statistics

From the perspective of consumption structure, since the 12th Five Year Plan period, China's domestic demand consumption market has shown obvious consumption upgrading characteristics. In 2020, China's per capita clothing consumption accounted for 5.8% of the total per capita consumption expenditure, and this figure has been maintained at more than 9% from 2000 to 2010. During the same period, the proportion of residents' consumption in improving housing, transportation and communication, medical and health care increased. Relevant statistical data show that the proportion of clothing consumption in consumption expenditure of the United States and Japan is 2.3% and 3.9% respectively. From this point of view, in order to further develop economy and improve people's living standard on the basis of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way, the growth of per capita clothing consumption will inevitably slow down, and the value promotion is the inevitable development focus.

Figure 6: changes in the structure of China's per capita consumption expenditure

Note: the data of 2015 and 2020 are the survey data published by the National Bureau of statistics, and the data from 1995 to 2010 are calculated based on the urban and rural survey data of the National Bureau of statistics

Source: National Bureau of statistics

During the "14th five year plan" period, under the new development pattern of "double cycle", China will establish a more solid economic foundation, more perfect infrastructure conditions and more superior innovation environment, which will provide more powerful support for the textile industry to tap the potential of domestic demand market. The textile industry should pay attention to several aspects of innovation trends in developing domestic demand market

In depth interpretation of Guochao culture. China has a population of 340 million people after 90 / 00, accounting for about a quarter of the total population. This group, known as the network aborigines, grew up under the national conditions of China's increasing comprehensive strength. It has personally experienced the powerful made in China and the elegance of Chinese civilization. It is the main consumer group in the next decade. With the help of textile and clothing products, the spiritual needs of expressing cultural confidence and national feelings will be enhanced It's going to get stronger. According to the data of Ali Research Institute, more than 50% of the consumers who buy new domestic brands in 2019 are post-95s; according to Nielsen's report on China's consumption trend index in the second quarter of 2019, 68% of Chinese consumers prefer domestic brands; Li Ning, who attended the New York Fashion Week in 2019, is widely known by the media as the first year of the fashion trend. In the future, traditional Chinese culture, national art, Chinese music and other traditional culture will be presented in Chinese brands, Chinese made clothing and home textile products in the form of concrete symbols. Designers will also use the contemporary fashion design language to express the value concept contained in culture, and establish emotional ties between products and consumers. Textile and clothing products will become the expression of fashion, personality, cultural sense of belonging and other life Attitude carrier, independent brand will usher in historic development opportunities.

There is a huge space for silver hair consumers. At present, the contradiction between supply and demand of silver hair consumers is more prominent. According to the data of Alibaba, the average annual compound growth rate of consumption amount of the elderly group from 2017 to 2019 is as high as 20.9%, and the consumption growth rate during the epidemic period is second only to that after 00. However, there are only more than 2000 kinds of products for the elderly in China, which is far behind Japan's more than 40000 varieties. Therefore, it is urgent to enrich the supply of elderly products. In 2025, China's elderly population aged 60 and above will exceed 300 million, and the market space of functional textiles such as medical care, health protection and clothing for the middle-aged and the elderly is broad. In addition, silver haired people are embracing digital life faster than expected. According to Alibaba's digital life report for the elderly, in the third quarter of 2020, the average monthly activity of the elderly using mobile Taobao app was 29.7 percentage points higher than the average level of the whole age group, and 71% and 63% of the elderly wanted to learn online shopping and online payment skills respectively. The new generation of elderly consumers who have just passed the old age standard have strong purchasing power. They are familiar with the Internet consumption logic, pay more attention to themselves, pursue quality consumption and fashion consumption. The small and beautiful unicorn brand, which is precisely positioned in the silver hair group, will enter a new era of harvest with heart.

The retail platform is extremely rich. In recent years, China's Internet consumption has grown rapidly, especially since the outbreak of the epidemic, the "fingertip consumption" that adapts to the housing economy has performed well. According to iResearch's "new e-commerce ecology helps economic recovery - insight report on retail consumption under epidemic situation", by March 2020, the number of mobile online shopping users exceeded 700 million, and online payment and online shopping increased by 27.9% and 16.4% respectively compared with that in 2018. With the growth of consumers' social, interactive and buy it now demands, traditional e-commerce, community e-commerce, social e-commerce, community e-commerce and other platforms will be given development opportunities, and various platforms such as rebate, second-hand trading, leasing, staging and trend matching emerge as the times require. The online retail channels of textile and garment products will be greatly enriched, and new retail and new business forms will be accelerated.

During the period of the "14th five year plan", China will officially start a new journey of building a socialist modern country in an all-round way, and make constant progress towards the goal of gradually realizing the common prosperity of all the people. Firmly based on domestic demand, integrating the latest high-quality innovation achievements of the whole industrial chain, and steadily expanding the domestic demand market are the core entry points for the textile industry to deeply integrate into the domestic big cycle, and also an important path for the textile industry to continuously improve the modern industrial system, break through the century long changes and realize sustainable development.